{"id":8436,"date":"2026-06-01T15:46:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T15:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forbes.co.il\/e\/?p=8436"},"modified":"2026-06-01T15:48:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T15:48:03","slug":"the-clock-is-ticking-on-encryption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forbes.co.il\/e\/the-clock-is-ticking-on-encryption\/","title":{"rendered":"The Clock Is Ticking on Encryption"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ll be honest: I entered into this most recent conversation for&nbsp;<strong>The Spiro Circle<\/strong>&nbsp;knowing almost nothing about quantum computing. I said as much to my guest, Itamar Sivan, co-founder and CEO of Quantum Machines, before we even started recording. That\u2019s alright &#8211; most people don\u2019t really understand it, he told me. Even scientists used to laugh at the idea that quantum computing would ever be commercially viable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But then, about halfway through our conversation, he said something that piqued my curiosity and made me put down my notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The threat isn\u2019t that quantum computers will simply \u2018make things faster\u2019. It\u2019s that they\u2019ll make things possible that are currently impossible. And one of those things is breaking the encryption that protects everything &#8211; and keeping cryptographers up at night. He cited potential examples as banks, messages, the NSA, and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cQuantum computers are not interesting because they\u2019re going to take problems we solve today and solve them faster,\u201d Sivan told me. \u201cBut rather they will take problems today we deem as impossible and make them possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"The Clock Is Ticking on Encryption - #0077, Itamar Sivan\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-WIp5G5sjoQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mechanism is an algorithm called&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Shor%27s_algorithm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Shor\u2019s algorithm,<\/a>&nbsp;which can factorize enormous numbers at speeds no classical computer could approach. Modern encryption is built on the assumption that factorizing very large numbers is effectively unsolvable. But by taking away that assumption, the entire architecture collapses. \u201cSomething that would take a hundred thousand years might be solvable at the scale of minutes,\u201d he told me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quantum Machines (QM),\u00a0a Tel Aviv-based company, featured on Forbes&#8217; <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.co.il\/e\/ext-billion-dollar-startups-2025-meet-israels-most-promising-startups\/\">Next Billion Dollar Startups<\/a> list ,\u00a0has\u00a0raised $280 million to build the orchestration layer running quantum processors. Founded in 2018, customers include academia, national labs, and the private sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What struck me was that he raised this before it exploded as a mainstream story. At the time of our recording, he flagged that a newly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/resources\/what-q-day-quantum-threat-bitcoin-explained\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">published paper&nbsp;<\/a>suggested quantum computers would need far fewer qubits to break encryption than previously thought. \u201cWe\u2019re still digesting it. If they\u2019re right, we\u2019re going to see some big changes in the world in a few years.\u201d And almost as an aside: \u201cOne of the claims is that it will be able to break the underlying encryption used for Bitcoin. Just that itself could be a big impact.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Research published between May 2025 and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thequantuminsider.com\/2026\/04\/28\/why-2026-matters-quantum-security\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">March 2026&nbsp;<\/a>shows that breaking widely used cryptographic systems may require far fewer quantum bits than previously thought. Estimates dropped from around 20 million physical qubits in 2019 to under one million by 2025. Papers from Caltech and Google in early 2026 prompted one Bitcoin security researcher to estimate a 10% chance that a quantum computer recovers a Bitcoin private key from an exposed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/362856\/google-quantum-paper-boosts-odds-of-bitcoin-q-day-by-2032-researchers-warn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">public key by 2032<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In April 2026, a researcher successfully broke a 15-bit elliptic curve cryptography key using publicly accessible quantum hardware \u2014 a&nbsp;<em>512-fold improvement<\/em>&nbsp;over the previous public demonstration just months earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Google has already set a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/tech\/2026\/03\/28\/here-s-how-bitcoin-ethereum-and-other-networks-are-preparing-for-the-looming-quantum-threat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2029 deadline<\/a>&nbsp;to migrate its own authentication services to post-quantum cryptography. The so-called \u201charvest now, decrypt later\u201d threat (adversaries collecting encrypted data today, waiting for quantum capability to mature before cracking it) means the clock is ticking, even though many still believe&nbsp;their things will be protected for many more years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sivan\u2019s broader point, the one I kept coming back to, is that quantum won\u2019t replace the computing infrastructure we\u2019ve built &#8211; but instead plug into it. It means the vulnerabilities we\u2019ve built into that infrastructure travel with us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNot a question of if,\u201d he told me as we finished. \u201cA question of when.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I didn\u2019t know much about quantum computing before this conversation. But I think I know enough now to think that answer should concern all of us!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A quantum computer that breaks Bitcoin&#8217;s encryption is no longer considered sci-fi. This founder is building the operating system and control layer that might just do it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":8437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,71,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","category-innovation","category-technology"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Clock Is Ticking on Encryption - Forbes Israel<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A quantum computer that breaks Bitcoin&#039;s encryption is no longer considered sci-fi. 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